Well, my vote for best picture goes to "Chicago". My PERSONAL favorite is "The Two Towers", but that is not how I judge. I've seen all the best pic nominess except for "The Pianist" and just couldn't make it to that, unfortunately. I haven't seen "Far From Heaven" either, so, I am not totally up to speed. (Which the typical Academy voter isn't either, I might add....)
From what I've heard, I think I would vote for Adrian Brody for best actor and very likely Roman Polanski for best director. I really can't guess if Nicholson or Lewis will win it though, of the two performances, I choose Lewis. Best actress, I would choose Nicole Kidman. I think she has been overlooked Oscar worthy roles that weren't even nominated ("To Die For", "The Others" and ANY other actress would have won for an equal performance of "Portrait of a Lady"). Since she has been dumped by Tom, she may have a chance tonight. But, Julia Moore having two nominations really messes it all up. I honestly think she is Oscar worthy in most any role, but I still vote for Catherine Zeta-Jones for her powerhouse supporting actress role. For best supporting actor, I'm really torn between Chris Cooper and John C. Reilly, either winning will make me very happy, but I will go with Reilly for my vote.
And I have to agree that Viggo wins any day as Best Heartthrob!