In view of the increasing possibility of actually having a WB DS next season, here's an interesting article from the Variety Web site.
(I would have provided a link rather than the full text, but this article is pay per view only, so
![[sssh]](http://www.dsboards.com/SMF/Smileys/classic/sssh.gif "Sssh")
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Posted: Sun., Mar. 21, 2004, 6:00am PT
. . . The nets don't need enemiesAt least 12 long-running shows will be off the air soonBy JOSEF ADALIANThe face of primetime is about to get an extreme makeover -- and it's unlikely webheads will like what they see once the bandages come off.
NBC's year-long orgy of grief over the end of "Friends" is sucking up most of the pop culture oxygen. What's gone almost unnoticed is the fact that over the next 18 months, at least a dozen other long-running shows will call it quits.
"Sex and the City" had its final roll in the hay last month. "Frasier," "The Practice," "The Drew Carey Show," "Angel" and "Ed" will all say their farewells over the next few months.
And by this time next year, it's a safe bet that the Big Four will be cranking out gushy promos hyping swan songs for landmark skeins "Everybody Loves Raymond," "The West Wing," "NYPD Blue," "That 70s Show," "7th Heaven" and "Malcolm in the Middle."
The almost unprecedented exodus of so many primetime staples in such a short span will cost the nets millions of loyal viewers -- and comes at a time when they can least afford to lose them:
- Creating scripted hits to replace old chestnuts has never been harder. While most of the shows ankling are well past their prime -- save for "Friends" and "Raymond" -- their collective exit will leave a slew of holes to fill.
- New shows generally end up attracting fewer viewers than the series they replace. The coming churn will likely drive down the overall number of people watching network TV -- something that will eventually lead to fewer ad dollars in network coffers.
- The departing comedy stalwarts -- "Friends," "Raymond," "That 70s Show" -- had the added advantage of doing particularly well in repeats, providing broadcasters a safety net when newer shows flopped. That insurance policy is about to expire.
- On the production side, studios will lose a slew of guaranteed moneymakers that served as profit centers for entire companies. Paramount, for example, has no other show on the air that comes even close to matching the profitability of "Frasier."
- The reality renaissance, while providing some short-term solutions, has made it tougher to find the next "Friends" or "Raymond."
In the past, the cyclical nature of the network TV biz has often made partings sweet sorrow.
The end of "Cheers" allowed "Seinfeld" to blossom. "L.A. Law's" final case allowed "ER" to emerge. Everybody didn't really love "Raymond" until after "Murphy Brown" signed off.
That's not necessarily the case anymore.
"Most of the shows going off the air now pre-dated the rise of reality programming," says one top network programmer. "Because of the reality boom, the world we're in now has made a lot of us less patient. The new shows that will be required to replace the ones going away probably are going to be given less chance to survive."
Unscripted shows like "American Idol" or "Average Joe" have proven they can go into tough timeslots and almost overnight double or even triple the ratings. That rarely, if ever, happens with comedies or dramas these days -- and the demand for instant profits makes it tough for webheads to stay the course with slower-starting scripted fare.
"You can muddle along with a so-so comedy or you can say, '(Screw) it, we'll do a reality show,' " one network exec sighs.
Former Fox topper Sandy Grushow says TV has turned into a "win today business."
"These are vertically integrated companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange," says Grushow, who now heads up Phase Two Prods. "The days of patience are largely over."
"Drew Carey" and "George Lopez" exec producer Bruce Helford agrees, noting that most network entertainment execs live in constant fear for their jobs.
"If I'm an exec, and I know that my job is on the line if I don't produce results immediately, I'm only thinking short-term," Helford says.
What's more, some of the strategies networks have been touting lately as examples of "new thinking" are having unintended negative consequences.
Several webs have decided it doesn't make sense to air repeats of many programs because ratings for reruns have hit record lows. But while repeats may be annoying to some viewers, they're also a great way for young shows to find an audience.
"CSI," for example, benefited from CBS giving the show a heavy rotation of repeats the summer between its freshman and sophomore seasons. Ditto "The West Wing," which NBC now rarely repeats.
"If you just leave a show in the same damn timeslot for a whole year, people might just find it," says Alan Sepinwall, TV columnist for the Newark Star- Ledger.
Not everyone is convinced the coming primetime overhaul is such a bad thing.
CBS chairman-CEO Leslie Moonves believes the Eye has done a good job keeping its primetime pipeline stocked with hits that will be able to pick up most of the slack when "Raymond" exits, most likely next season.
"We're always thinking two or three moves ahead. Having seven new shows launch in the last two years puts us in a good position," Moonves says, pointing to young hits like "Two and a Half Men" and "Without a Trace" as future anchors. "We have tentpoles."
Even competitors concede CBS is best equipped to weather the coming flurry of farewells, both because of its strong development and, ironically, its older-skewing core audience.
"Their demo is more likely to be loyal to network television, and less likely to be tempted by all the choices that are siphoning off younger viewers," one veteran network exec says.
Also easing the pain for the nets is the fact that advertisers seem more willing to shell out top dollar for unscripted programming like "American Idol," "The Apprentice" and "Survivor."
There's little backend potential in such shows -- a key fact in an era when nets own much of their programming-- but that doesn't faze NBC topper Jeff Zucker.
While he and his predecessors failed in finding a comedy successor to "Friends," Zucker argues the Peacock can still fly high as long as it comes up with reality hits.
"These shows are now the most upscale shows we have on our air," Zucker says. "For us, it's all about being in our brand."
Warner Bros. TV president Peter Roth is concerned about how much easier it seems to be for unscripted fare to break out, but he's not ready to give up the fight.
While critics have declared the sitcom dead, Roth argues "Two and a Half Men" qualifies as a hit, noting the show has improved on its "Everybody Loves Raymond" lead-in a couple times this season. "The O.C.," which WBTV produces for Fox, has also connected in a big way.
"It's more difficult than ever to break through, but maybe it should be more difficult," Roth says.
"I'm a viewer, and I'm more discerning than ever, so why shouldn't the networks and audiences be more demanding?" he asks. "Maybe this is a call to arms for everyone involved in scripted programming. We have to think harder, dig deeper and execute more effectively than we've ever done before."[/b]
Date in print: Mon., Mar. 22, 2004, WeeklyOf course, in DS' case, it would be a show produced by Warner Bros. TV, airing on the WB network, which might mean it would be given a better opportunuity to find itself.
