'Murder' got mucho buzz because it was the most DVRed show in history when it debuted so I am not overly hopeful about the numbers re: Elementary pulling ahead, but one never knows.
In the normal ratings (meaning those for Live + Same (day) DVR viewing) HtGAWM is down now that
Elementary has premiered opposite it, so
Elementary has already had an impact against it. And
Elementary doesn't have to pull ahead of HtGAWM. That would be nice. But it only has to hold its own against HtGAWM. (And I have to confess to being a fan of both shows, so it really doesn't matter to me which is on top - I'd just like to see them remain fairly close.)
I also know that there was a lot of boo hooing about the Elementary premier - and I mean a lot of negative fan comments.
If some members of the audience really dislike the new protege, then the show is doing exactly what it set out to do. In fact, TPTB have said that the more negative reaction to her, the better. And I'm really curious about the hints that there's "something nefarious" going on with her...