MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest

[jimbo]

Voting starts January 3rd. http://moviesblog.mtv.com/2011/12/29/mtv-movie-smackdown-2012-announcement/

[jimbo]

FYI voting has started.
http://moviesblog.mtv.com/2012/01/03/mtv-movie-smackdown-2012-round-one/

[Mysterious Benefactor]

Gee, The Hunger Games and The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 are already dominating:

The Hunger Games  38.73%
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2  37.95%
Snow White And The Huntsman  14.87%
Prometheus  2.1%
The Woman in Black  1.59%
The Dark Knight Rises  1.17%
John Carter  0.69%
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey  0.6%
Marvel's The Avengers  0.36%
Les Miserables  0.33%
Dark Shadows  0.31%

Now, where have we seen that before? Oh, yeah - in the last MTV poll. So apparently the same young women who voted in that one are voting in this one (as also evidenced by the fact that Snow White And The Huntsman is currently ranked 3rd). Though that's hardly a surprise, now is it...

Let's just hope that whoever killed the last poll by stuffing votes with voting software doesn't kill this poll as well. 

But regardless, thanks for the heads up, jimbo.    I cast my vote. 

[Mysterious Benefactor]

Well, I see DS' ranking has jumped up quite a bit, which is good if we want to see it make the cut as one of the top 16:

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2  43.56%
The Hunger Games  43.07%   
Snow White And The Huntsman  5.05%     
Dark Shadows  2.06% 
John Carter  1.37%   
The Dark Knight Rises  1.27%   
Prometheus  0.78% 
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey  0.7%   
Marvel's The Avengers  0.49%   
The Woman in Black  0.44%   
The Great Gatsby  0.17%   
Les Miserables  0.14% 
Taken 2  0.14%   
Men In Black III  0.11%     
The Amazing Spider-Man  0.09%   
American Reunion  0.07%

Though as with the previous poll, the voting here seems to be testosterone lacking for sure! 

[jimbo]

I do hope it makes the top 16-a trailer about now may help. I hope DS gets more votes than The Avengers who seem to be preparing to do some re-shoots http://www.ramascreen.com/the-avengers-re-shoots-this-week-the-movie-is-an-allegory-for-americans

[jimbo]

Is MTV going over the top? Anyway DS seems to be doing ok over 3% when I last looked.
http://moviesblog.mtv.com/2012/01/04/mtv-movie-brawl-2012-wild-card-round/

[Mysterious Benefactor]

I guess you haven't looked in a while because I just saw where DS' percentage has jumped up quite a bit (relative to the other films) and it's distancing itself from the pack below it:

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2  46.85%
The Hunger Games  37.99%
Snow White And The Huntsman  4.38% 
Dark Shadows  4.3%   
John Carter  2.17%   
The Dark Knight Rises  1.13% 
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey  0.9%       
Marvel's The Avengers  0.51%   
Prometheus  0.39%   
The Great Gatsby  0.29%   
The Woman in Black  0.23%
Men In Black III  0.11%   
The Amazing Spider-Man  0.1%   
Les Miserables  0.08%   
Taken 2  0.08%   
21 Jump Street  0.06%
American Reunion  0.06%

Very interesting. And it's nice to see. Though its percentage really doesn't matter in this round so long as its percentage gets it to the next group of 16. That's where the real battle is going to begin. And let's just hope it doesn't go against any of the films currently above it because, if that was to happen, it could easily be eliminated in the first round of head-to-head voting...

[Mysterious Benefactor]

I hope DS gets more votes than The Avengers

Well, it certainly is at the moment. But we shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking the votes in this poll are a reflection of how the films will fare at the box office. The poll is simply a reflection of the people voting in it, and we can't really make the leap that it signifies anything more...

And this new wild-card round explains a lot. I was definitely wondering where certain films like, say, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter were? But now I see that if people want it and others as part of the "brawl," they're going to have to nominate and support the films missing from the initial 32.

[jimbo]

It is interesting that the DS vote total leaped that high in a very short period of time-maybe 20 minutes before my last post. Not a bad thing of course. I wonder if MTV took any corrective measures to prevent those unethical people using that voting software to skew the results. They do allow you to vote more than once so who knows.

[Mysterious Benefactor]

When I looked earlier this morning, it was at 3.44% - and that was at about 10:20 ET. So if it didn't fall from that, it climbed just under another full percent in about an hour and a half - and that's very doable without software if enough people voted. And certainly if many people voted multiple times. When percentages jump several full percentage points in that same space of time is definitely when to suspect something underhanded could be going on. 

[jimbo]

Interesting stuff. Thanks MB. There are only 74 comments made so far so I wonder how large the voting universe is. Maybe MTV doesn't want us to know the actual voting numbers in the event its a small number.

[Mysterious Benefactor]

Well, it's possible to approximate what the voting is currently like. I just checked, and for DS to jump 0.01% it took 10 votes. So, that would approximate to these current votes for each film:

21 Jump Street  0.06% - 60
 
The Amazing Spider-Man  0.09% - 90
 
American Reunion  0.06% - 60
 
Battleship  0.02% - 20
 
The Bourne Legacy  0.02% - 20
 
The Dark Knight Rises  1.08% - 1080
 
Dark Shadows  4.17% - 4170
 
The Dictator  0.03% - 30
 
Django Unchained  0.05% - 50
 
The Expendables 2  0.04% - 40
 
Gangster Squad  0.01% -10
 
Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance  0.02% - 20
 
G.I. Joe: Retaliation  0.04% - 40
 
Gravity  0.01% - 10
 
The Great Gatsby  0.27% - 270
 
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey  0.89% - 890
 
The Hunger Games  40.6% - 40600
 
John Carter  1.96% - 1960
 
Les Miserables  0.08% - 80
 
Magic Mike  0.02% - 20
 
Marvel's The Avengers  0.49% - 490
 
Men In Black III  0.1% - 10
 
Mirror, Mirror  0.03% - 30
 
Project X  0.01% - 10
 
Prometheus  0.36% - 360
 
Rock Of Ages  0.01% - 10
 
Skyfall  0.01% - 10
 
Snow White And The Huntsman  4.13% - 4130
 
Taken 2  0.07% - 70
 
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2  45% - 45000
 
The Woman in Black  0.24% - 240
 
Wrath Of The Titans  0.03% - 30

Though those are only approximations because it's not likely that every film that has 0.01% has exactly 10 votes. Some could have 7, some could have 12 - but their percentages of 0.007% and 0.012% are rounded to 0.01%. But at the same time, it's a good approximation of what the current voting is like. And in total there have been approximately 99910 votes cast so far, with the lion's share of them going to The Hunger Games and The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2.

Also note that DS has overtaken Snow White And The Huntsman to become third. But who knows how long that will last once the Twilight (i.e Kristen Stewart) fans notice...

[jimbo]

Thanks MB for the analysis and breakdown of the votes. I didn't think there were that many votes registered. Thanks again and it is greatly appreciated. Hopefully the Twilight fans don't vote too often.

[jimbo]

http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1676741/breaking-dawn-part-2-movie-brawl.jhtml an update

[jimbo]

Sorry about the link in my previous post-I or my "smart" phone had an issue. Good to see the article referencing DS muscle.