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General Discussions => Current Talk Archive => Current Talk '24 I => Current Talk '11 II => Topic started by: jimbo on December 29, 2011, 05:32:54 PM

Title: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on December 29, 2011, 05:32:54 PM
Voting starts January 3rd. http://moviesblog.mtv.com/2011/12/29/mtv-movie-smackdown-2012-announcement/
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 03, 2012, 05:42:13 PM
FYI voting has started.
http://moviesblog.mtv.com/2012/01/03/mtv-movie-smackdown-2012-round-one/
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 03, 2012, 06:35:28 PM
Gee, The Hunger Games and The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 are already dominating:

The Hunger Games  38.73%
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2  37.95%
Snow White And The Huntsman  14.87%
Prometheus  2.1%
The Woman in Black  1.59%
The Dark Knight Rises  1.17%
John Carter  0.69%
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey  0.6%
Marvel's The Avengers  0.36%
Les Miserables  0.33%
Dark Shadows  0.31%

Now, where have we seen that before? Oh, yeah - in the last MTV poll. So apparently the same young women who voted in that one are voting in this one (as also evidenced by the fact that Snow White And The Huntsman is currently ranked 3rd). Though that's hardly a surprise, now is it...

Let's just hope that whoever killed the last poll by stuffing votes with voting software doesn't kill this poll as well.  [santa_rolleyes]

But regardless, thanks for the heads up, jimbo.  [santa_smiley]  I cast my vote.  [santa_wink]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 04, 2012, 12:14:29 AM
Well, I see DS' ranking has jumped up quite a bit, which is good if we want to see it make the cut as one of the top 16:

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2  43.56%
The Hunger Games  43.07%   
Snow White And The Huntsman  5.05%     
Dark Shadows  2.06% 
John Carter  1.37%   
The Dark Knight Rises  1.27%   
Prometheus  0.78% 
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey  0.7%   
Marvel's The Avengers  0.49%   
The Woman in Black  0.44%   
The Great Gatsby  0.17%   
Les Miserables  0.14% 
Taken 2  0.14%   
Men In Black III  0.11%     
The Amazing Spider-Man  0.09%   
American Reunion  0.07%

Though as with the previous poll, the voting here seems to be testosterone lacking for sure!  [santa_cheesy]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 04, 2012, 01:20:52 AM
I do hope it makes the top 16-a trailer about now may help. I hope DS gets more votes than The Avengers who seem to be preparing to do some re-shoots http://www.ramascreen.com/the-avengers-re-shoots-this-week-the-movie-is-an-allegory-for-americans
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 04, 2012, 04:56:34 PM
Is MTV going over the top? Anyway DS seems to be doing ok over 3% when I last looked.
http://moviesblog.mtv.com/2012/01/04/mtv-movie-brawl-2012-wild-card-round/
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 04, 2012, 05:49:44 PM
I guess you haven't looked in a while because I just saw where DS' percentage has jumped up quite a bit (relative to the other films) and it's distancing itself from the pack below it:

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2  46.85%
The Hunger Games  37.99%
Snow White And The Huntsman  4.38% 
Dark Shadows  4.3%   
John Carter  2.17%   
The Dark Knight Rises  1.13% 
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey  0.9%       
Marvel's The Avengers  0.51%   
Prometheus  0.39%   
The Great Gatsby  0.29%   
The Woman in Black  0.23%
Men In Black III  0.11%   
The Amazing Spider-Man  0.1%   
Les Miserables  0.08%   
Taken 2  0.08%   
21 Jump Street  0.06%
American Reunion  0.06%

Very interesting. And it's nice to see. Though its percentage really doesn't matter in this round so long as its percentage gets it to the next group of 16. That's where the real battle is going to begin. And let's just hope it doesn't go against any of the films currently above it because, if that was to happen, it could easily be eliminated in the first round of head-to-head voting...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 04, 2012, 06:03:17 PM
I hope DS gets more votes than The Avengers

Well, it certainly is at the moment. But we shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking the votes in this poll are a reflection of how the films will fare at the box office. The poll is simply a reflection of the people voting in it, and we can't really make the leap that it signifies anything more...

And this new wild-card round explains a lot. I was definitely wondering where certain films like, say, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter were? But now I see that if people want it and others as part of the "brawl," they're going to have to nominate and support the films missing from the initial 32.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 04, 2012, 06:09:48 PM
It is interesting that the DS vote total leaped that high in a very short period of time-maybe 20 minutes before my last post. Not a bad thing of course. I wonder if MTV took any corrective measures to prevent those unethical people using that voting software to skew the results. They do allow you to vote more than once so who knows.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 04, 2012, 06:23:02 PM
When I looked earlier this morning, it was at 3.44% - and that was at about 10:20 ET. So if it didn't fall from that, it climbed just under another full percent in about an hour and a half - and that's very doable without software if enough people voted. And certainly if many people voted multiple times. When percentages jump several full percentage points in that same space of time is definitely when to suspect something underhanded could be going on.  [santa_wink]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 04, 2012, 06:31:38 PM
Interesting stuff. Thanks MB. There are only 74 comments made so far so I wonder how large the voting universe is. Maybe MTV doesn't want us to know the actual voting numbers in the event its a small number.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 04, 2012, 07:19:15 PM
Well, it's possible to approximate what the voting is currently like. I just checked, and for DS to jump 0.01% it took 10 votes. So, that would approximate to these current votes for each film:

21 Jump Street  0.06% - 60
 
The Amazing Spider-Man  0.09% - 90
 
American Reunion  0.06% - 60
 
Battleship  0.02% - 20
 
The Bourne Legacy  0.02% - 20
 
The Dark Knight Rises  1.08% - 1080
 
Dark Shadows  4.17% - 4170
 
The Dictator  0.03% - 30
 
Django Unchained  0.05% - 50
 
The Expendables 2  0.04% - 40
 
Gangster Squad  0.01% -10
 
Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance  0.02% - 20
 
G.I. Joe: Retaliation  0.04% - 40
 
Gravity  0.01% - 10
 
The Great Gatsby  0.27% - 270
 
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey  0.89% - 890
 
The Hunger Games  40.6% - 40600
 
John Carter  1.96% - 1960
 
Les Miserables  0.08% - 80
 
Magic Mike  0.02% - 20
 
Marvel's The Avengers  0.49% - 490
 
Men In Black III  0.1% - 10
 
Mirror, Mirror  0.03% - 30
 
Project X  0.01% - 10
 
Prometheus  0.36% - 360
 
Rock Of Ages  0.01% - 10
 
Skyfall  0.01% - 10
 
Snow White And The Huntsman  4.13% - 4130
 
Taken 2  0.07% - 70
 
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2  45% - 45000
 
The Woman in Black  0.24% - 240
 
Wrath Of The Titans  0.03% - 30

Though those are only approximations because it's not likely that every film that has 0.01% has exactly 10 votes. Some could have 7, some could have 12 - but their percentages of 0.007% and 0.012% are rounded to 0.01%. But at the same time, it's a good approximation of what the current voting is like. And in total there have been approximately 99910 votes cast so far, with the lion's share of them going to The Hunger Games and The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2.

Also note that DS has overtaken Snow White And The Huntsman to become third. But who knows how long that will last once the Twilight (i.e Kristen Stewart) fans notice...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 04, 2012, 07:40:40 PM
Thanks MB for the analysis and breakdown of the votes. I didn't think there were that many votes registered. Thanks again and it is greatly appreciated. Hopefully the Twilight fans don't vote too often.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 04, 2012, 10:16:49 PM
http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1676741/breaking-dawn-part-2-movie-brawl.jhtml an update
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 05, 2012, 01:33:05 AM
Sorry about the link in my previous post-I or my "smart" phone had an issue. Good to see the article referencing DS muscle.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 05, 2012, 02:25:50 AM
Thanks for the link to the article, jimbo.  [santa_smiley]  Though things are apparently happening so fast in the poll that its info is already a bit dated. John Carter has faded somewhat, and both DS and Snow White And The Huntsman have more than double its percentage, but it is still holding at 5th. And DS is amazingly still holding 3rd over Snow White And The Huntsman - though the percentages for both have gone down from earlier today because some of the films with small percentages are rallying (yay, The Woman in Black - I love that film's trailers). Though, of course, The Hunger Games and The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 are still heavily dominating (and seemingly switching spots almost every time I check into the poll):

The Hunger Games  44.9%   
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2  42.68%   
Dark Shadows  3.51%   
Snow White And The Huntsman  3.3%   
John Carter  1.27%   
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey  1.08%   
The Dark Knight Rises  0.96% 
The Woman in Black  0.59%   
Marvel's The Avengers  0.48%   
Prometheus  0.24%   
The Great Gatsby  0.18%   
The Amazing Spider-Man  0.11%   
Les Miserables  0.1%   
Men In Black III  0.09%   
Taken 2  0.06%
21 Jump Street  0.05%
American Reunion  0.05%

Though to me the really shocking thing is that The Dark Knight Rises and Marvel's The Avengers are garnering so few votes. Sure, the voters would seem to mostly be young women - but do those two films appeal exclusively to young men or men in general? I wouldn't think so...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 05, 2012, 02:35:55 AM
Thanks MB. I think MTV is also asking the same questions. Not too long ago they seem to be recruiting fans of the Avengers and Spiderman to participate in its poll. http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1676744/avengers-spider-man-movie-brawl-2012.jhtml
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 05, 2012, 08:33:39 AM
Hmmm - I do believe someone in the Snow White and the Huntsman camp is using voting software to increase the film's percentage. And the reason I'm saying that is that its percentage has been steadily climbing at a set rate since I first noticed it was climbing at 10:30pm ET. So, unless someone has been sitting at their computer or with their phone and methodically clicking the "vote" button at exactly the same rate of speed for at least 4 hours now without taking a break so that the percentage is climbing at a constant and predictable rate, voting software is definitely involved.  [santa_angry]

The good news at the moment is that Snow White and the Huntsman hasn't overtaken DS yet (DS is at 4.22%, SWatH is at 4.02%). But if things continue the way they are much longer, it certainly will. And if things continue beyond that, who knows what its percentage is likely to end up being...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 05, 2012, 03:50:28 PM
Well, DS is now at 3.92% and SWatH is at 5.59% and still predictably climbing at the same steady rate, so who knows when it will stop...

Of course, in the grand scheme of things so far as this round in the poll goes, it really doesn't matter what either percentage is because the only goal is to get into the top group of 16 - and considering the percentages of the films below them, I doubt there's any danger that either film won't do that. But I can't help but think that the resorting to using software is at least one person in the SWatH camp's way of signalling to DS fans that they're not about to let DS overtake their film for any real period of time. Even if DS manages to overtake SWatH again, the software can just be trotted out again and set to remedy the situation. And if that is their thinking, that completely destroys the notion of friendly competition...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 06, 2012, 01:25:17 AM
DS is down to 2.92 but still not a bad showing to date.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 06, 2012, 01:30:31 AM
Though notice that Snow White and the Huntsman is now up to 6.5% (and still climbing from what I can see). And in a truly bizarre turn, some film named Cosmopolis, one of the five wild cards just added today, surged right past both to currently have a percentage of 7.13! Can you say more use of voting software because there's no way that a film just added today could have humanly amassed the thousands of votes needed to have a percentage that high.  [santa_rolleyes]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 06, 2012, 01:40:59 AM
This means war! jk We need our own special DS software to level the playing field. There goes the integrity of this poll. Perhaps this is the type of action MTV is looking for.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 09, 2012, 04:07:58 PM
Voting bracket is open. Dark Shadows vs. Spiderman
http://moviesblog.mtv.com/2012/01/09/mtv-movie-brawl-2012-bracket/
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 09, 2012, 04:39:02 PM
Interesting pairings - especially The Dark Knight Rises vs. Avengers so that only one of those will make it through the first round. But then one of them will go against whichever film wins in DS' battle.

IF things go similarly to the qualification round, it could be DS vs. TDKR in the next round. But who knows? Particularly if anyone in those two battles trots out the voting software...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 09, 2012, 05:54:50 PM
It seems early on that there are many Spider-man fans. Again you can vote more than once but that cannot overcome the voting software monster.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 09, 2012, 08:16:18 PM
Yes, it seems like many more Amazing Spider-Man fans are showing up in this round than in the qualifying round as I see that DS is currently ahead - but not by much: 52.03% vs 47.97%.

Apparently getting DS through to the second round is going to be a battle .
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 10, 2012, 04:15:56 AM
Wow, now DS is only leading 51.28% vs 48.72%...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 10, 2012, 04:38:04 AM
And before I added some votes, it was trailing! 

Anyone else getting an error message for the poll now?
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 10, 2012, 04:57:18 AM
It seems fine. I just voted. Real close.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 10, 2012, 05:18:15 AM
Just did a little experiment.  A person (or one IP) is limited to voting 70 times in a (roughly) 2.5 hour time frame.  Would this stop the voting programs?   
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 10, 2012, 05:34:58 AM
A person (or one IP) is limited to voting 70 times in a (roughly) 2.5 hour time frame.  Would this stop the voting programs?

You would think so, but no. MTV's poll checks IP addresses, but some voting software is apparently clever enough to somehow change IP addresses - even on computers that always have the same IP address (what's known as a static IP address, as opposed to a dynamic IP address, which changes every time the computer logs on to the Internet). The only people who receive that time limit are those of us who have the same IP address all the time...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 10, 2012, 05:44:21 AM
That is very disconcerting.  I was hoping my experiment would be able to give us some hope against the Twilight voting machine (I'm hoping it gets that far)!  Well, at least it added to the DS total and helped me procrastinate a bit longer!   [snow_cheesy]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 10, 2012, 05:46:41 PM
I see it's now DS leading with 52.39% vs. 47.61%. This is going to be a nail biter. Well, if nothing underhanded happens...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 11, 2012, 11:29:53 PM
Shadows has hopefully staked Spidey for good.  When does the next round begin?
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 11, 2012, 11:37:58 PM
Sometime tomorrow. But I won't stop holding my breath that DS has successfully made it to the next round until it actually does. Too many underhanded things have happened in these polls - particularly the MTV polls - for me to feel confident it has made it...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 11, 2012, 11:39:52 PM
Very true.  But, hopefully the Spiderman fans are above that and can just accept that their movie isn't going to be as good as ours.   [snow_wink]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 11, 2012, 11:42:11 PM
Well, I don't know if that's what they should accept.  [snow_wink]  Though maybe they should accept that the DS fans voting in the poll appear to be more dedicated than they've been.  [snow_smiley]  But voting for the first round isn't over yet, so...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 12, 2012, 07:44:07 AM
Whatever helps them sleep at night...   [snow_wink]

Looks like Shadows won.  Now it is up against the Dark Knight.  This is where it's going to get tricky.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 12, 2012, 07:47:54 AM
Just noticed that the first round of voting has closed and DS has remained victorious: 61.82% vs. 38.18%. And in the next round DS will go up against The Dark Knight Rises (which was victorious in its battle: 52.17% vs. 47.83%) and its fate there is anything but certain IMO. But time will tell.

Also, there are some interesting, or should I say seemingly paranoid comments in the comments section for the poll. I don't honestly think MTV fixes any of the outcomes (though if your film didn't do well, I can see where someone might have sour grapes enough to think so) but there is no doubt that some of the voting in the qualification round (as well as MTV's previous poll) was certainly done with voting software. Who knows about the other battles in round 1? However, I seriously doubt MTV was behind the use of such software...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 12, 2012, 07:48:56 AM
Now it is up against the Dark Knight.  This is where it's going to get tricky.

GMTA.  [snow_wink]  [snow_laugh]

Quite honestly, I wouldn't be at all surprised if DS is trounced in round 2. But we shall see...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 12, 2012, 04:42:21 PM
I think the Johnny Depp fans helped big time and we will need them in this round for sure.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 12, 2012, 05:22:27 PM
Next round is opened. Closes Monday. http://www.mtv.com/content/news/2011/movie_brawl_2012/
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 12, 2012, 06:12:36 PM
DS will need help from a lot of quarters.  [snow_wink]

Currently DS is leading 55.72 % vs. 44.28%. But it would be dangerous to get confident in that because when I looked into the poll earlier this morning those percentages were basically switched in favor of The Dark Knight Rises, so I strongly suspect the leading percentage is going to flip-flop between films - at least during this initial voting.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 12, 2012, 07:12:51 PM
It is going to be a tough battle. TDKR is beating DS 57.4 to 42.6
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 12, 2012, 07:23:33 PM
Well, we expected it to flip back the other way. And at this early stage every vote really counts because it's still possible for DS to regain the lead. Well, unless voting software gets into the proceedings so soon. If that happens, DS is as good as dead so far as round 2 goes..
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 12, 2012, 09:07:35 PM
DS has regained some ground: 46.36% vs. 53.64% for TDKR. But  people need to be diligent and dedicated and to continue to vote if DS is ever to regain the lead. It is still possible at this point. But if TDKR gets close to 60% by the end of the day, it'll be pretty much over for DS - and that trouncing that I predicted last night will definitely come to pass...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 13, 2012, 02:00:49 AM
I just finished voting and cut the gap to 46.88% vs. 53.12% - so it is still possible to close in and possibly regain the lead. It may take quite a while. But it can only be done if we all continue to vote...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 13, 2012, 05:42:10 AM
Well, I just finished voting again, and apparently we've been able to cut into TDKR's lead a bit more because now DS has 47.11% vs. 52.89 %. Not a huge move - but progress. And progress IS progress.  [snow_wink]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 13, 2012, 09:01:55 AM
Someone has been busy on our side - when I just finished voting DS' percentage had reached 49.48% vs. 50.52%. And while I was voting, someone else was also voting for DS, so it might be even closer now...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 13, 2012, 09:11:03 AM
I helped push it over the top.  50.1 Shadows to 49.9 TDKR.   [snow_cheesy]

But, alas, some Batfan will undo my efforts.  But, at least, we are leading for the moment. 
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 13, 2012, 11:13:35 AM
Great work, friends! We are leading by nearly 10 points now!   [crowdhappy]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 13, 2012, 12:48:00 PM
Something odd is definitely going on now - regardless of which battle you try to vote in or what you try to vote for, the vote button just spins and spins without ever showing if your vote went through. And you can't even check for results in any of battles because nothing comes up.  [snow_undecided]

Hopefully it isn't that someone trotted out the voting software in one of the battles, they went too far too fast with it, and it crashed the entire polling system - again...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 13, 2012, 12:50:05 PM
Spoke too soon - it's working again...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 13, 2012, 01:29:36 PM
DS is now ahead 59.86% vs. 40.14%.

It took a great many votes to accomplish it, and I wonder if the newly released EW photo had anything to do with the turnaround? But regardless of the cause, again, it would be dangerous to get too confident. The only way to keep DS ahead is to keep voting...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 13, 2012, 04:56:39 PM
Despite a number of voting the count only went up by .1. Perhaps MTV is basing it on a voter's IP address. DS 57.39 TDK 42.61
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 13, 2012, 05:52:47 PM
That's pretty much to be expected - especially if someone else is voting against you at the time you're voting, which I suspect may have been the case because I just voted and was able to raise DS' percentage by .19%.

The thing is that during the early stages of voting, a single vote could raise the percentages by quite a lot - but as more and more votes accumulate in the poll, each single vote has less and less of an effect. Whereas during a lot of the voting yesterday one person could have raised the percentages for each film by a full percent or more, that's no longer the case. It took a lot of votes to get TDKR so far ahead of DS yesterday - and it took even more votes to get DS so far ahead of TDKR - so there are A LOT of votes in the poll. What one person might have been able to accomplish with their votes yesterday, it now takes five people to accomplish the same thing. Based on how I was able to increase DS' percentage by .19%, it currently takes more than five people to raise DS' percentage by a full percent. And as more votes accumulate in the poll, it's going to take more than six, seven, eight and so forth to do it. But the good thing in all that is that it's also going to take that same amount of people to decrease DS' percentage by a full percent. And that's why it's so important to keep voting. The more we vote, the harder it is for the opposition to catch up and possibly regain the lead.

And speaking of the lead, when I was cut off from voting, DS was leading 58.45% vs. 41.55%...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 13, 2012, 08:35:53 PM
DS is now leading 62.26% vs. 37.74%.

Down in the comments section I saw a request to Twilight fans to help with the DS voting. I wonder if any of them are? Though if they are, obviously we won't be able to count on their help should DS go against Breaking Dawn - Part 2 in the next round. Although, at the moment Robert Pattinson is beating himself (hmmm - that doesn't sound quite right  [naughty]) and his film Cosmopolis is ahead of Breaking Dawn - Part 2 by a sizeable margin..
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 13, 2012, 11:16:26 PM
TDKR is definitely trying to mount a comeback because I just voted, and despite finding DS at 62.17% when I started voting, DS fell rather than rose during most of the time that I was voting.  [snow_shocked]  It fell all the way down to 62.04% before it began to rise again. By the time I was cut off, it had gone up to 62.06% vs 37.94%. But all this just goes to show that we definitely have to continue to vote if we want to hold TDKR off as well as make it harder for them to gain ground.

At first I was afraid that they were using voting software. Falling while voting is often a sure sign. But with the amount of votes the poll must have by now, it would have been very hard to regain even 0.02% against voting software, so maybe they're not.

Let's just hope I wasn't able to regain 0.02% simply because they were resetting the software for another run with it. And let's also hope that the only reason DS' percentage was falling rather than increasing during most of the time that I was voting was because I was voting against multiple people who just happened to be voting at the same time as me...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: barnabasjr on January 14, 2012, 12:47:35 AM
I just voted via each browser I could use and got DS to 62.18 vs 37.82 for TDKR. We can do it! [cheerleader]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 14, 2012, 01:33:12 AM
I hope we can all make it to Monday when the this round closes. This is a marathon.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 14, 2012, 01:38:04 AM
Fantastic work, everyone!  I don't know if they have limited the number of votes you can cast every two hours, but my quote seems to be filling up a lot faster than in the first round...  Maybe I am just getting used to it.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 14, 2012, 05:14:56 AM
DS 58.68 TDKR 41.32 As MB said we can't relax but it's good to see many of us working hard. I noticed the number of tweets for this particular poll is now up to 1,945. Hopefully many of these tweets are from DS supporters.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 14, 2012, 05:19:16 AM
Well, I can't say I liked what I just found when I voted: DS had fallen all the way down to 58.67%. And as I was first voting, again, rather than rising, the percentage fell down to 58.62%. However, it seems like some other DS voters joined me because we managed to get the percentage up to 58.71%. So, at least the percentage ended up higher than where it was when I started. But the TDKR people have made significant inroads. And it's going to be fascinating to see what the percentage is in two and a half hours when I vote for the last time before going to bed. And what's going to be even more fascinating will be to see which camp is going to be more dedicated about voting over the three day holiday weekend...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 14, 2012, 05:21:18 AM
So, was that you, jimbo, voting at the same time that I was?  [snow_smiley]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 14, 2012, 05:48:02 AM
Yes the timing is just right. I thought I heard you. jk It is a battle or smackdown as they say.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 14, 2012, 05:52:11 AM
You probably heard me bitching when it was going down instead of up.  [snow_laugh]  Not that I actually expected TDKR people to roll over and give up. But I also didn't expect them to gain more than 3% in only 6 hours. THAT was dedicated voting. And it makes me fearful of what I'm going to see later on...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 14, 2012, 05:56:03 AM
As a matter of fact I did. Good to hear.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 14, 2012, 07:45:51 AM
It is down to 56.3, and that was after I voted!  ^Shudders^
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 14, 2012, 08:38:23 AM
I had DS up to 56.53% until someone started voting against me and it went down to 56.5%. But before I got cut off, I got it back to 56.52%.

Unfortunately, no one said it would be easy to try to keep DS in the lead. Quite to the contrary, actually. It's going to be a tough job...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 14, 2012, 12:29:49 PM
Well, IF things continue along the same path as they currently are, DS is definitely going to get that trouncing by the end of this holiday weekend because it's now down to 55.67%...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 14, 2012, 04:12:00 PM
53.83% - and the situation is getting suspicious now because of the similar amounts of decrease the past few times. But there isn't enough conclusive evidence to be sure. But it will be very interesting to see what the percentage is in another three hours...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 14, 2012, 05:08:18 PM
I forgot to write down the numbers before I got a message that I had been blocked until MTV decided when the cooling period is over for me. There is heavy voting as the percentage increased and decreased when I was voting. Again I think the number of people tweeting this poll is probably mostly TDKR fans.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 14, 2012, 06:49:34 PM
Well, it's 52.02% - not a good sign. And it's still hard to tell if there's software involved or if there are just so many TDKR people voting. It is suspicious that the voting for TDKR has been so consistent for so many hours that DS can't even seem to gain anything more than a few hundredths of a percent, which is quickly lost once we get cut off from voting. But who knows...

Initially before poling even started I didn't give DS a chance in hell of coming out on top - as I said, I honestly expected a trouncing. After all, TDKR is a sequel in a well established franchise and outside of the US DS is barely known, if even known at all - and the film doesn't even have a trailer or poster. But when DS got so far ahead, it looked like it could have a chance. But apparently, if what's happening on Twitter is any indication, TDKR people are getting out the word about the poll and fans are seemingly responding in droves. So perhaps it's simply that DS' lead was just an aberration, and what I initially suspected is what really should have been happening all along and the course is finally correcting itself.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 14, 2012, 07:02:19 PM
I had IE delete all of my cookies and history and yet MTV still recognized me as a voter placed on its cooling off list. Off topic if you delete all cookies how does MTV keep track of you and still be able to recognize your IP address? In any event I can no longer help. I do agree that we are at a disadvantage. However, if the trailer comes out that could be a poll changer.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 14, 2012, 07:17:13 PM
MTV's poling system logs voters' IP addresses and apparently also logs the last time those IPs voted.

And sadly, I don't think a trailer is coming out any time before this round of voting closes in this poll. Maybe it could help with some future poll.  [snow_wink]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 14, 2012, 08:54:48 PM
I guess there is no more privacy on the internet. But in this case it enhances the integrity of this poll. I'm going to try later on the mobile but using the internet eats up the battery in no time.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 14, 2012, 09:00:46 PM
They let me back in but DS is barely beating TDKR 50.29-49.71.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 14, 2012, 09:19:34 PM
Considering the way things have been playing out the last 12 hours or so, It's only a matter of time before TDKR overtakes DS. And short of something truly miraculous happening, I doubt DS will be able to retake the lead.  [snow_sad]  Whatever is going on now with TDKR, be it underhanded or legit, is too powerful and too constant...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 15, 2012, 12:15:53 AM
Odd - the TDKR voting seems to have stopped at getting that film to 50.8% vs DS at 49.2% because I was just able to DS back up to 49.25%. Hmmm...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 15, 2012, 01:03:02 AM
I have a friends laptop that I'm doing some work on for her, so I just put it back together and did some double-dip voting.  [snow_smileydevil]  And apparently I'm not the only one who was voting for DS because when I got to the poll it was back up to 49.57% and I got it to 49.62%.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 15, 2012, 03:02:49 AM
I just checked and TDKR is now leading 51-49. Hopefully it is not over yet.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 15, 2012, 04:15:11 AM
There is not human way, with the thousands of votes cast, that TDKR could continue to grow at such a steady - and I mean steady - pace.  There has to be some voting software.  70 votes for DS raises it .02 percent.  How did TDKR get to the point where it is in a matter of a day - especially when it was 30 points behind...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 15, 2012, 11:08:41 AM
We can still win this thing, assuming that the DKR voting machine (whether its man or computer powered) doesn't increase the margin by a sizable amount.  It will just take massive commitment.  Maxing out the clicks every 2 hours or so pushes it up .03 percentage points.  (This will, of course, decrease as the votes continue to count.)  It's at 48.72, so we can still overtake TDK.  Let's go team Shadows!   [cheerleader] [cheerleader] [cheerleader] [cheerleader]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 15, 2012, 10:32:37 PM
Yeah, I think there's some foul play going on here...  It has been increasing too steadily and does not let up.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 17, 2012, 06:10:52 AM
Well, I see that round 2 of voting has closed and the final tally is: TDKR - 52.68% vs. DS - 47.32%. And while it might be disappointing that DS didn't make it to the next round, I think it's quite remarkable that DS did as well as it did and held off that trouncing that I initially feared. Considering that TDKR is likely to make anywhere from twice to three times as much as DS at the boxoffice, coming in so close in the poll was quite an accomplishment.  [thumb]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 17, 2012, 07:06:40 AM
Yes, it's a comfort to know it was beaten by a movie like TDKR as opposed to something like The Amazing Spiderman or Cosmopolis, movies which aren't as sure-bets as TDK. 

As a side note, The Woman in Black made quite a last minute upset against the Hobbit.  It was trailing just a couple of hours before.  Those fans pulled off quite a feat. 
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 17, 2012, 05:16:48 PM
It certainly would have been an upset if DS defeated TDKR. Its current audience is massive and we obviously haven't tapped into our potential audience. It seems the power of Twitter also did the DS movie in as fans of TDKR networked very well.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 18, 2012, 10:40:49 PM
DS was considered a dark horse. Hard to believe there was a total of 400,000 votes in the Twilight contest.

http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1677471/robert-pattinson-cosmopolis-breaking-dawn.jhtml
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 18, 2012, 11:22:55 PM
Well, it would be nice if it didn't have to have that status and was simply viewed as a well-known, sure-to-be box office hit.  Warners, there is something you can do about this...  Why you aren't is beyond me.   [ski]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 19, 2012, 12:31:54 AM
But DS isn't a well-known and sure-to-be box office hit - and it wouldn't be even if Warner Brothers was already promoting the hell out of it. As I said earlier in this topic, outside the US, DS is barely known if known at all. Yes, Warner Brothers' marketing campaign will raise the film's profile, especially outside the US. But even at that, there's nothing sure-to-be about it. Like I've also said, I'd be thrilled IF DS made $100 million or more in the US, but I'm by no means expecting it to. And while I'm thinking it will do well, I'll honestly be satisfied even if it just breaks even when it comes to its US box office tally - particularly considering that factoring in its worldwide box office and eventual DVD/Blu-ray sales should net a nice profit.  [snow_wink]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 19, 2012, 01:06:58 AM
Of course I know it's not a surefire thing, but promotion can do a lot for a film, and it can indeed make it well-known.  How did the Hunger Games become so popular or Harry Potter or Twilight?  These books had promotion which ultimately led people to read them.  In theory, if Warners treated DS like a surefire hit, it would most likely do better.  You're right, not a lot of people know about DS.  That's the problem.  Warners has the power to change that.  And I hope they do.   [snow_wink]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Mysterious Benefactor on January 19, 2012, 01:16:03 AM
I'm still confident Warner Brothers has a marketing plan in place. It's anyone's guess what it is. But it will definitely surface eventually because something tells me few entities involved want the film to succeed more than Warner Brothers, the studio that's distributing it.  [snow_wink]

That being said, though, as fans it IS frustrating that we haven't seen anything yet. But then, Warner Brothers doesn't really have to market the film to us. And we're frustrated exactly because we're fans. But I doubt the general public is frustrated. And something also tells me that Warner Brothers has a plan in place to try to attract them. And apparently, for some reason that's known only to them and the others involved with the film, they don't think that the time to do that has arrived yet...
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 19, 2012, 01:24:39 AM
I wouldn't mind working right about now in WB marketing department. It will be interesting to see what promotional items they are preparing to give out to the media; shirts, caps, coffin shaped items etc... But that is for another discussion. Can't wait to see the huge highway billboard signs.
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: Cousin_Barnabas on January 19, 2012, 01:46:25 AM
Well said, MB.  And, again, you are right.  It is sooooo frustrating!

And jimbo, I definitely want a coffin shaped promo kit!   [snow_smileydevil]
Title: Re: MTV's Movie Smackdown 2012 Contest
Post by: jimbo on January 19, 2012, 02:02:31 AM
That would be so cool Cousin_Barnabas. They did have a wooden shaped coffin giveaway at the 1991 premiere for the winners although it wasn't a press kit. I managed to obtain one of them off Ebay years ago.